Modelagem da dinâmica do uso e cobertura da terra para Madre de Dios, Peru

Abstract

The Department of Madre de Dios is located at the Peruvian Amazonia. It is well-known for its biodiversity and for being composed of 96% of forests. This same region has been the target of large investments in infrastructure so as to stimulate its occupation, which may affect the environment if done indiscriminately. The roadwork done for the settling of the Interoceanica Sul Highway is the most important being done at present. The existence of roads is significant deforestation agents. The main goal of this research was to model the use of the land around the road crossing Madre de Dios for 2020 throughout the use of Landsat 5 images of the years 2001 and 2006. The catchment area was of 50 kilometers from the road inside the Department. The input variables used for the model were urban, protected, mining and forest areas, roads, sideways, land lots, soils and vegetation. The model has been validated by comparing the previews made for the year 2011 with Landsat images for the same year. The kappa index obtained from this comparison was 0,876. We decided not to calibrate the model due to the high kappa index obtained. We then used the model for the year 2020. We obtained 4.599,76 Km2 of non-forest areas for this year, which can be compared to a deforestation of about 1.480 km2 between the years 2011 and 2020. The most damaged areas were the outskirts of the capital, Porto Maldonado, the border with Brazil and the southern area.