Determinantes do resultado educacional no Brasil: família, perfil escolar dos municípios e dividendo demográfico numa abordagem hierárquica e espacial

Abstract

The central aim of this dissertation is to investigate the determinants of educational outcomes at elementary and high school levels, using the economic demographic tradition. The analysis is done via two different methodologies: hierarchical and spatial-hierarchical. The last one represents an important methodological contribution to this dissertation.The analysis of the educational determinants is based on tree main points: The first one deal with the demographic dividend impact. It attempts to evaluate how relevant demographic changes in Brazil which had as a consequence the decline in the young dependency ratio could bring a demographic bonus to the Brazilian education, for opening the window of opportunities.The second point is related with the importance of several factors present at local schools, mainly those connected to infra-structure and humans resources quality. This analysis is important for examining which local school structure aspects may reduce the family background factors relevance, allowing for an educational stratification attenuation - that is - thinning the relationship between the individuals school path and your social origin. Finally, the third point tries to detect how a larger spatial context interferes in the educational output. This analysis is important for two reasons: First, because when spatial effects autocorrelation and spatial heterogeneity are considered, the parameters estimates associated with contextual variables are more trustworthy. Second, because it will be possible to analyze if educational public policies are more effective when centralized solely in a specific municipality or when taking into account a greater geographical area (i.e. those including adjacent municipalities).The results show that, despite the strong impact of mothers education over educational indicators, an improvement in the local schools quality can minimize these effects. However, this enhancement is more successful when a greater spatial context is considered.Adding to these points, smaller sizes of children and youth cohorts turn out to be a positive aspect for both school indicators: access and efficiency.