Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2016

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dc.creatorNobuyuki Horita
dc.creatorh Dean Hosgood
dc.creatorSorin Hostiuc
dc.creatorPeter j Hotez
dc.creatorDamian g Hoy
dc.creatorMohamed Hsairi
dc.creatorFares Alahdab
dc.creatorAung Soe Htet
dc.creatorGuoqing hu
dc.creatorJohn j Huang
dc.creatorHsiang Huang
dc.creatorKidanu Gebremariam Meles
dc.creatorPeter Memiah
dc.creatorZiad a Memish
dc.creatorPeter Allebeck
dc.creatorWalter Mendoza
dc.creatorMelkamu Merid Mengesha
dc.creatorMubarek Abera Mengistie
dc.creatorDesalegn Tadese Mengistu
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dc.creatorSheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam
dc.creatorVeena s Kulkarni
dc.creatorBereket Gebremichael Menota
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dc.creatorRajaa Al-raddadi
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dc.creatorg Anil Kumar
dc.creatorNazrul Islam
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dc.creatorAwoke Misganaw
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dc.creatorMengistu Welday Gebremichael
dc.creatorAmha Admasie Gelaye
dc.creatorJohanna m Geleijnse
dc.creatorKefyalew Addis Alene
dc.creatorBikila Lencha Gemechu
dc.creatorKasiye Shiferaw Gemechu
dc.creatorRicard Genova-maleras
dc.creatorHailay Abrha Gesesew
dc.creatorAli Shafqat Akanda
dc.creatorPeter w Gething
dc.creatorReza Malekzadeh
dc.creatorKatherine b Gibney
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dc.creatorRichard f Gillum
dc.creatorAbabi Zergaw Giref
dc.creatorMohammad Hossein Khosravi
dc.creatorBedilu Weji Girma
dc.creatorGiorgia Giussani
dc.creatorShifalika Goenka
dc.creatorBeatriz Gomez
dc.creatorPhilimon n Gona
dc.creatorRajesh Malhotra
dc.creatorTomi f Akinyemiju
dc.creatorSameer Vali Gopalani
dc.creatorAlessandra Carvalho Goulart
dc.creatorNicholas Graetz
dc.creatorHarish Chander Gugnani
dc.creatorGetiye Dejenu Kibret
dc.creatorPrakash c Gupta
dc.creatorRahul Gupta
dc.creatorRajeev Gupta
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dc.creatorDeborah Carvalho Malta
dc.creatorVipin Gupta
dc.creatorJuanita a Haagsma
dc.creatorNadia Akseer
dc.creatorNima Hafezi-nejad
dc.creatorAlex Hakuzimana
dc.creatorYara a Halasa
dc.creatorChristian Kieling
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dc.creatorYuantao Hao
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dc.creatorHabtamu Abera Hareri
dc.creatorSivadasanpillai Harikrishnan
dc.creatorTsegahun Manyazewal
dc.creatorJosep Maria Haro
dc.creatorMohammad Sadegh Hassanvand
dc.creatorRasmus Havmoeller
dc.creatorRoderick j Hay
dc.creatorSimon i Hay
dc.creatorFei he
dc.creatorSamer Alabed
dc.creatorIleana Beatriz Heredia-pi
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dc.creatorClaudiu Herteliu
dc.creatorCaleb m s Irvine
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dc.creatorHans w Hoek
dc.creatorDaniel Kim
dc.creatorPauline Kim
dc.creatorSungroul Kim
dc.creatorRuth w Kimokoti
dc.creatorYohannes Kinfu
dc.creatorAyman Al-eyadhy
dc.creatorSami Kishawi
dc.creatorNiranjan Kissoon
dc.creatorChabila c Mapoma
dc.creatorMika Kivimaki
dc.creatorAnn Kristin Knudsen
dc.creatorYoshihiro Kokubo
dc.creatorJacek a Kopec
dc.creatorSoewarta Kosen
dc.creatorParvaiz a Koul
dc.creatorai Koyanagi
dc.creatorMichael Kravchenko
dc.creatorSamia Alhabib
dc.creatorKristopher j Krohn
dc.creatorLaurie b Marczak
dc.creatorBarthelemy Kuate Defo
dc.creatorErnst j Kuipers
dc.creatorXie Rachel Kulikoff
dc.creatorFrançois Alla
dc.creatorGuy b Marks
dc.creatorElena Alvarez Martin
dc.creatorJose Martinez-raga
dc.creatorFrancisco Rogerlândio Martins-melo
dc.creatorJoão Massano
dc.creatorPallab k Maulik
dc.creatorBongani m Mayosi
dc.creatorCristiana Abbafati
dc.creatorMohsen Mazidi
dc.creatorColm Mcalinden
dc.creatorStephen Theodore Mcgarvey
dc.creatorShalini d Allam
dc.creatorJohn j Mcgrath
dc.creatorMartin Mckee
dc.creatorSuresh Mehata
dc.creatorMan Mohan Mehndiratta
dc.creatorKala m Mehta
dc.creatorToni Meier
dc.creatorZiyad Al-aly
dc.creatorTefera Chane Mekonnen
dc.date.accessioned2023-06-28T23:28:49Z
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-08T23:05:22Z
dc.date.available2023-06-28T23:28:49Z
dc.date.issued2017-09-16
dc.format.mimetypepdf
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)31833-0
dc.identifier.issn01406736
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1843/55522
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.relation.ispartofThe Lancet
dc.rightsAcesso Aberto
dc.subjectCarga global de doença
dc.subjectMortalidade
dc.subject.otherMortality
dc.subject.otherGlobal Burden of Disease
dc.titleGlobal, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2016
dc.typeArtigo de periódico
local.citation.epage1150
local.citation.issue10100
local.citation.spage1084
local.citation.volume390
local.description.resumoDetailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016.Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15–60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone.Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5–24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates—a measure of relative inequality—increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7–87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8–83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016.Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5689-3870
local.publisher.countryBrasil
local.publisher.departmentENF - DEPARTAMENTO DE ENFERMAGEM MATERNO INFANTIL E SAÚDE PÚBLICA
local.publisher.departmentMED - DEPARTAMENTO DE CLÍNICA MÉDICA
local.publisher.departmentMED - DEPARTAMENTO DE PEDIATRIA
local.publisher.initialsUFMG
local.url.externahttps://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(17)31833-0/fulltext

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