Transição da matriz elétrica no Brasil: impactos, financiamento e oportunidades para a economia brasileira

Abstract

Brazil has a great competitive advantage when it comes to the energy transition due to its matrix, much of which is made up of renewable energies. The generation of electricity through hydroelectric, solar and wind power plants stands out. With the expansion of renewable energy production, there is the possibility of using this extra capacity to develop green products such as hydrogen, steel and cement, among others. This dissertation assessed the economic impacts of investments in renewable energy generation under the New PAC. The analysis advances by considering the impacts of different sources of funding, such as public, public/private, private and foreign. In addition, another objective of this work was to analyze which sectors of the economy would be most impacted by this direction of investment and thus enable discussion of medium and long-term policies for a fair and sustainable energy transition. To this end, the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with a dynamic-recursive structure called BEETS (Brazilian Energy Emissions Trading Schemes model) was used. The model developed includes energy and environmental specification modules that allow investments to be allocated to each energy generating source and also makes it possible to verify the impacts on greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the change in the electricity matrix. This dissertation, however, added an investment financing module to the model, distinguishing between sources of funding (public, public/private, private and foreign). The model also specifies a set of 11 representative families, distributed by income class, which made it possible to compare the changes in consumption patterns between the different classes due to the implementation of energy generation projects. The results showed that investments in renewable energy provide gains in gross domestic product and different impacts on other macroeconomic variables, emissions, sectoral results and household consumption depending on the financing scenario.