Demanda agregada e a endogeneidade da taxa natural de crescimento: evidência para África Subsaariana

Abstract

This paper discusses the theory of growth driven by aggregate demand in Sub-Saharan African countries, discussing the mechanisms by which aggregate demand shocks affect economic growth in the long run, presenting not only the existing theory, but also some empirical evidence made in this field of research. The question to be answered is whether the more industrialized countries in the sample have a greater endogeneity of the natural rate of growth in relation to the less industrialized countries in the same group. We first test the existence of the unit root and then the endogeneity of the natural growth rate of 34 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa between 1992 and 2019. The results of the first test suggest that the output series are not stationary and therefore shocks (both supply and demand) have persistent effects on the economy. In relation to endogeneity, we find that the more industrialized countries definitely have a greater endogeneity of the natural growth rate than the less industrialized ones. We also found that the movement of the natural rate of growth appears to be asymmetrical throughout the cycle, since the decline in periods of recession is, on average, greater than the increase in periods of expansion.