Incerteza, expectativas e convenções em política econômica: uma abordagem pós-eynesiana

Abstract

In monetary economies, the dynamics of the economy are determined by companies that make decisions based on the level of production and investment, according to expectations. The objective article evaluates the impact of uncertainty on the Brazilian economy for the period from 2003 to 2015. It discusses the impact and the way of conducting economic policy with reference to the theory of conventional behavior. The results show that uncertainty persists on average between four and five months, and can reach seven months. Furthermore, the political dimension can be a source of stability or uncertainty that, through conventions, reduces or prolongs impulses and warnings of uncertainty.