Projeção dos impactos econômicos regionais do desastre de Mariana-MG

Abstract

The large-scale economic damage and losses caused by disasters have attracted the attention of specialists who are studying ways of modeling those kind of impacts. In face of the deep losses and damages caused by the disaster in Mariana, on November 5th, 2015, this work aims to project the main regional economic impacts of the event. This study also provides support for the debate on the role of economic aspects in the occurrence of environmental/urban disasters and the potentialization of their effects, through an economic approach to the issue. The main contribution is to provide methodology and results that will collaborate in the evaluation of the economic effects of the disaster. To do so, we have developed a dynamic model of Computable General Equilibrium, especially built for municipalities directly and indirectly affected by the disaster, in order to capture the regional economic impacts in the period from 2016 to 2020. The results indicate that, generally, the five-year post disaster were insufficient for the retake of production, family consumption, employment, investment and trade, even in the event of the resumption of the total Mariana production in 2018. In addition, the results suggest a great interdependence in the absorption of negative impacts by the regions along the Doce river.