Geração de viagens de carga em empreendimentos em construção: um estudo para Belo Horizonte

Abstract

The economic development of cities is closely related to the urban distribution of goods of various industrial segments. However, such activities also generate negative impacts that can be mitigated when the behavior of load flows is known. Then it becomes evident the importance of freight trip generation models for urban planning. In this context, the objective of this paper is the development of freight trip generation models for construction sites in the city of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais - Brazil. It was performed a systematic and bibliometric literature review about freight trip generation for a better understanding of the concepts and methods. The methodological approach of this work begins with the definition of the objective, scope and time horizon, as well as the dependent and independent variables to be used in the study. The identification of the constructions was made based on Belo Horizonte City Hall control and the sample was defined considering the 604 constructions that requested authorization for building in 2017. The data were obtained from the application of a questionnaire answered by those responsible for receiving the goods. A total of 105 questionnaires were applied in nine zones that compose the Belo Horizonte city. Subsequently, a statistical analysis of the data was performed and the degree of correlation between the variables was determined, as well as the development of 190 linear models and generalized linear models. The models were validated using statistical methods. Analyzing the models developed, it is concluded that the models with best accuracy in the prediction of freight trip generation for civil works are the linear models that use constructed area and number of employees as explanatory variables