Padrões de mobilidade e efeitos distributivos sobre o rendimento do trabalho: uma análise a partir de perfis ocupacionais

Abstract

Recent transformations in the Brazilian labor market, driven by technological changes and rising educational level of the workforce, raise new questions about the occupational structure and mobility patterns. In this context, this thesis investigates how occupational transitions relate to the structure of inequalities and wage returns, considering the skills and qualifications demanded by occupations. The analysis starts from the hypothesis that changes occurred in occupational distribution over the decade, that these effects were not homogeneous among social groups—especially when considering gender and race—and, finally, that mobility patterns and their returns vary according to the nature of occupations. The study combines a descriptive and applied approach using data from the Relação Anual de Informações Sociais (RAIS) for the state of Minas Gerais. It considers pairs of consecutive years —2010/2011, 2018/2019, and 2021/2022 – identifying workers employed in the first year and located anywhere in the national territory in the following year. Occupations were classified into six groups based on an original typology constructed from the Quadro Brasileiro de Qualificações (QBQ), which synthesizes different qualification levels through the combination of knowledge, skills, and attitudes required by occupations. This methodological proposal constitutes an original contribution of the study, as it allows for the analysis of occupational mobility through the lens of the nature of competences performed at work. The results indicate that, although the occupational structure remains relatively stable over the period, a reconfiguration of mobility trajectories is observed, especially among higher-qualified segments. The labor market retains traces of social stratification and segmentation by gender, race, and qualification, which are reflected in distinct patterns of transition and wage return among groups. The estimated regressions confirm that income variations follow the qualification hierarchy: downward movements imply wage losses, while transitions to more qualified groups generate substantial gains; however, the magnitudes vary by workers’ gender and race. Taken together, the results suggest that the Brazilian labour market is undergoing a partial reconfiguration of social distances yet remains constrained by the persistence of structural barriers that condition both access to and returns from occupational mobility. This dynamic points to a research agenda focused on understanding new forms of inequality and the challenges to fostering more equitable professional trajectories in a context of accelerated technological change.