Perspectivas da siderurgia brasileira para os próximos 10 anos: uma análise por vetores autoregressivos

Abstract

The present study aims to analyze the balance of Brazilian steel supply and demand from 1955-2010. The study uses annual data of the Steel Institute of Brazil and Central Bank of Brazil. Based on the methodology of vector autoregression (VAR), we conclude that the variation in demand for steel precedes changes in GDP, and forecasting for period 2011-2020 provided between steel demand and GDP should grow by an average 7% and 4 % per year, respectively. And finally, there is an imbalance between supply and demand for steel in the scenario where 60% of investment intentions become effective and that where there is reduction in the share of imports to 5% of demand. Therefore, to maintain the current perfomance strategy to the domestic market and foreign market around 30% of production, the investment plans are in line with forecasts of growth in steel demand for the next years.