Os impactos das mudanças climáticas sobre a produção agrícola, uso do solo e economia da amazônia legal entre os anos de 2030 e 2049: uma abordagem através de equilíbrio geral computável (egc)

Abstract

This paper seeks to verify the impacts of climate change on the economy of the legal Amazon, especially on agricultural production, land use, GDP and employment generation, using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, REGIA - Inter- Regional General Equilibrium Model for the Brazilian Legal Amazon, configured to capture changes in agricultural production and land use in the Legal Amazon region according to the climate change scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It was verified in the simulations that there will be a fall in the economic indicators of the Legal Amazon region, with accumulated retraction of the real GDP in the order of 1.18% in 2049 due to the fall in agricultural production and employment in the sector, in addition the model indicated that there will be a gradual replacement of pasture areas by crop. Such changes will occur in a heterogeneous way in the region, with the states of Mato Grosso, Tocantins and Pará being the most affected, states whose participation in agriculture in the economy is more relevant.