Modelagem espacial da produtividade e rentabilidade econômica do cultivo de cana-de-açúcar para o Brasil e para a Região MAP

Abstract

Sugarcane cultivation is a key economic and cultural element within Brazilians territorial and social configuration, having an important role since colonial times. The evolution of how geographic conditions, economic cycles and state policies related to one another was determinant for the establishment of the sectors present architecture. Recently, the growing pressure for energy sources which are cleaner then fossil fuels(today responsible for 89% of all global energy), shed light on biofuels, one of them being sugarcane ethanol, bringing forth a new phase for the sugar-alcohol sector. Its development in Brazil raised worries regarding possible direct and indirect effects of the crops expansion onto the conversion of native vegetation coverings, especially in the Amazon Biome. However, planning directives are also being developed, with the aim of ordering this process. Modeling of spatial-economic surfaces, representing the potential profitability variation regarding its spatial component for a number of given activitie smay be a useful tool in the decision making process. Agriculture represents the main opportunity cost for conservation, and a competitive use such as sugar-cane cultivation, should have its economic return surface mapped, as an aid to agricultural space planning and the creation of conservation strategies. In this context, we present the development of a model capable to estimate productivity (t ha-¹year-1) of sugarcane in a way spatially explicit for Brazil. After bibliography revision, we chose the use of SIMCANA (Pereira e Machado, 1986), a dynamic simulator for sugarcane growth, which calculates the daily response of the crop to environmental conditions during the stages of plants growth. Finally, profitability estimation was calculated (R$ ha-1year-1) for sugarcane plantation in Brazil, identifying areas were this activity would bring more economic return to the producer, regarding simulated productivity, production costs and sugarcane selling prices.