Seguro rural no Brasil (2016–2024): fatores explicativos, projeção de prêmios e estimativas da cessão em resseguro

Abstract

Agriculture insurance is an important risk mitigation tool for Brazilian agribusiness, especially in the face of climatic, economic, and institutional factors that directly affect farmers' income. This study aims to analyze the impacts of subsidies from the Rural Insurance Premium Subsidy Program (PSR), claim ratios, macroeconomic and climatic factors on the issuance of rural insurance premiums in Brazil from 2016 to 2024. The methodology adopted was Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) with time-lagged variables, considering the sector’s seasonality and the cyclical behavior of the market. The results show that the variable with the greatest explanatory power was the premium issued with a 12-month lag, highlighting strong temporal dependence. The claim ratio and the Commodities Index also showed a positive relationship with the premium, while the proportion of premium subsidy showed a negative relationship, contrary to initial expectations. The occurrence of the La Niña phenomenon proved to be statistically significant. The projections made for the first months of 2025, both for the premium issued and the reinsurance cession rate, showed good fit and adherence to the observed values. The results obtained may support more efficient public policies and assist insurers in defining pricing and risk management strategies.