Dinâmica de redução de emissões via mercado de comércio de permissões: uma simulação para o mercado brasileiro

Abstract

The climate emergency and the expansion of regulated carbon markets across various jurisdictions emphasize the importance of effective economic mechanisms for emission control. Although Brazil has committed to the targets outlined in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), it does not yet have an operational mandatory emissions trading system (ETS). In this context, this study simulates an ETS based on Brazilian data, incorporating a temporal dimension and alternative regulatory designs. The objective is to analyze the dynamics of the system under different configurations, evaluating how the carbon market influences abatement costs and emissions trajectories over time. The analysis encompasses 14 economic subsectors across the Energy, Industrial Processes and Product Use, and Waste sectors, which together accounted for approximately 26% of Brazil’s net greenhouse gas emissions in 2022. The most recent update to Brazil’s NDC serves as the environmental target, acting as the emissions cap throughout the modeled period. Results demonstrate that incorporating a banking flexibility mechanism smooths intertemporal abatement costs and reduces overall costs compared to both a basic ETS setup and a command-and-control alternative, each evaluated under the same emissions target. The primary contribution of this research is the identification of an efficient ETS configuration, proposed as a practical regulatory design applicable to the Brazilian context.