Análise da interdependência entre o desenvolvimento urbano e o transporte urbano sobre trilhos

Abstract

The relationship between urban land use and transport infrastructure is inseparable, nevertheless urban planning and transport planning are treated as two distinct areas, which often leads to problems. It is therefore necessary to unify the two areas and seek coordinated, result-oriented solutions. In this context, this work analyzed the interdependence between urban development and urban rail transport, and assessed the mutual impact among both factors. A demand forecast model of the Spatial Durbin Error type was created, selected through comparison between the results of the main spatial regression models. The spatial nature of the problem was confirmed via Moran’s I and Lagrange multiplier tests. Urban development indicators that influence and are influenced by the mode of transport were analyzed. Two future scenarios that predict differences in territorial occupation were compared, seeking to maximize the benefits of transport and accessibility oriented development. The results point to a strong relationship between changes in urbanization and the increased demand for travel, as well as improvements in the proposed indicators. The larger share of the population living in the vicinity of train stations translated into a 70% increase in the number of public transport users compared to the scenario without densification in these areas. The modal share of rail transport also grew 62% in this scenario, as well as a substantial increase in access to jobs in these areas.