A evasão escolar no ensino médio e a vulnerabilidade socioeconômica: um estudo segundo PNAD contínua 2019 e 2022

Abstract

School dropout is the temporary or permanent departure of a student from school. It can be explained by socioeconomic vulnerability, sociodemographic context, and the need for the individual to enter the labor market to contribute to household income. This study aims to identify social, economic and demographic factors that contribute to a greater or lesser chance of individuals aged 15 to 17 years old dropping out of high school. The logistic regression model was applied to the microdata of the educational supplement of the Continuous National Household Survey (PNADc) for the years 2019 and 2022, a period before and after the Covid-19 pandemic. The effect of the variables sex, age, head of household status, race/ethnicity, residential area, coverage by the Bolsa Família Program (PBF), receipt of LOAS Pension, and exercising some labor activity increase the chance of the individual dropping out. However, living in urban areas and having higher per capita household income decrease the chance of the individual dropping out. The findings of this study show that dedication to labor activities can influence the abandonment of studies in high school. Thus, individuals from families in a more favorable economic context and who, therefore, do not need to work to help support the household, are more likely to continue their studies and reach a higher level of education. In the PNADc sub-sample selected for the study, among individuals who receive a scholarship, the percentage of non-dropouts is 100%, which indicates that individuals with this type of support tend not to drop out. A controversial result that needs to be further studied is about the meaning of the effect of the PBF, which presence was pointed out as a factor that favors dropout. In both periods, 2019 and 2022, the final models had acceptable discriminatory power, presenting an area under the ROC curve greater than 0.70.