The prognostic accuracy evaluation of SAPS 3, SOFA and APACHE II scores for mortality prediction in the surgical ICU: an external validation study and decision-making analysis

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dc.creatorAntônio Luis Eiras Falcão
dc.creatorAlexandre Guimarães de Almeida Barros
dc.creatorAngela Alcântara Magnani Bezerra
dc.creatorNatália Lopes Ferreira
dc.creatorClaudinéia Muterle Logato
dc.creatorFilipa Pais Silva
dc.creatorAna Beatriz Francioso Oliveira do Monte
dc.creatorRodrigo Marques Tonella
dc.creatorLuciana Castilho de Figueiredo
dc.creatorRui Moreno
dc.creatorDesanka Dragosavac
dc.creatorNelson Adami Andreollo
dc.date.accessioned2022-04-28T17:14:49Z
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-09T01:20:14Z
dc.date.available2022-04-28T17:14:49Z
dc.date.issued2019-01
dc.format.mimetypepdf
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1186/s13613-019-0488-9
dc.identifier.issn2110-5820
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1843/41211
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.relation.ispartofAnnals of Intensive Care
dc.rightsAcesso Aberto
dc.subjectPrognóstico - Métodos estatísticos
dc.subjectUnidade de tratamento intensivo
dc.subjectTratamento intensivo cirúrgico
dc.subjectMortalidade
dc.subject.otherPrognostic scores
dc.subject.otherCritical care
dc.subject.otherSurgical intensive care unit
dc.titleThe prognostic accuracy evaluation of SAPS 3, SOFA and APACHE II scores for mortality prediction in the surgical ICU: an external validation study and decision-making analysis
dc.typeArtigo de periódico
local.citation.epage10
local.citation.issue18
local.citation.spage1
local.citation.volume9
local.description.resumoBackground: The early postoperative period is critical for surgical patients. SOFA, SAPS 3 and APACHE II are prognostic scores widely used to predict mortality in ICU patients. This study aimed to evaluate these index tests for their prognostic accuracy for intra-ICU and in-hospital mortalities as target conditions in patients admitted to ICU after urgent or elective surgeries and to test whether they aid in decision-making. The process comprised the assessment of discrimination through analysis of the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration of the prognostic models for the target conditions. After, the clinical relevance of applying them was evaluated through the measurement of the net benefit of their use in the clinical decision. Results: Index tests were found to discriminate regular for both target conditions with a poor calibration (C statistics—intra-ICU mortality AUROCs: APACHE II 0.808, SAPS 3 0.821 and SOFA 0.797/in-hospital mortality AUROCs: APACHE II 0.772, SAPS 3 0.790 and SOFA 0.742). Calibration assessment revealed a weak correlation between the observed and expected number of cases in several thresholds of risk, calculated by each model, for both tested outcomes. The net benefit analysis showed that all score’s aggregate value in the clinical decision when the calculated probabilities of death ranged between 10 and 40%. Conclusions: In this study, we observed that the tested ICU prognostic scores are fair tools for intra-ICU and in-hospital mortality prediction in a cohort of postoperative surgical patients. Also, they may have some potential to be used as ancillary data to support decision-making by physicians and families regarding the level of therapeutic investment and palliative care.
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/ 0000-0001-6874-8494
local.identifier.orcidhttp://orcid.org/0000-0001-5363-0717
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/ 0000-0002-9795-8316
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/ 0000-0001-6730-3020
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/ 0000-0001-7452-1165
local.publisher.countryBrasil
local.publisher.departmentEEF - DEPARTAMENTO DE FISIOTERAPIA
local.publisher.initialsUFMG
local.url.externahttps://annalsofintensivecare.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s13613-019-0488-9

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