Impact of COVID-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil: excess deaths, sub-notified cases, geographic and ethnic distribution

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dc.creatorPaulo Henrique Ribeiro Amaral
dc.creatorLídia Maria de Andrade
dc.creatorFlávio Guimarães da Fonseca
dc.creatorJuan Carlos González Pérez
dc.date.accessioned2024-02-21T17:30:57Z
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-08T23:11:07Z
dc.date.available2024-02-21T17:30:57Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.description.sponsorshipCNPq - Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
dc.description.sponsorshipFAPEMIG - Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais
dc.description.sponsorshipCAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.13922
dc.identifier.issn1865-1682
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1843/64417
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.relation.ispartofTransboundary and Emerging Diseases
dc.rightsAcesso Restrito
dc.subjectCOVID-19 (Doença)
dc.subjectMinas Gerais
dc.subject.otherCOVID-19
dc.subject.otherEthnic distribution
dc.subject.otherGompertz function
dc.subject.otherMinas Gerais
dc.subject.otherSub-notification
dc.titleImpact of COVID-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil: excess deaths, sub-notified cases, geographic and ethnic distribution
dc.typeArtigo de periódico
local.citation.epage2530
local.citation.issue4
local.citation.spage2521
local.citation.volume68
local.description.resumoBy analysing the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, we showed the importance of considering the sub-notification not only of deaths but also of infected cases. It was shown that the largely used criteria of a historical all-deaths baseline are not approachable in this case, where most of the deaths are associated with causes that should decrease due to social distancing and reduction of economic activities. A quite simple and intuitive model based on the Gompertz function was applied to estimate excess deaths and excess of infected cases. It fits well the data and predicts the evolution of the epidemic adequately. Based on these analyses, an excess of 21.638 deaths and 557.216 infected cases is predicted until the end of 2020, with an upper bound of the case fatality rate of around 2.4% and a prevalence of 2.6%. The geographical distribution of cases and deaths and its ethnic correlation are also presented. This study points out the necessity of governmental and private organizations working together to improve public awareness and stimulate social distancing to curb the viral infection, especially in critical places with high poverty.
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-0799-4143
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2594-4617
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1416-8694
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9155-1657
local.publisher.countryBrasil
local.publisher.departmentICB - DEPARTAMENTO DE MICROBIOLOGIA
local.publisher.departmentICX - DEPARTAMENTO DE FÍSICA
local.publisher.initialsUFMG
local.url.externahttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/tbed.13922

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