Simulação hidrológica ferramenta para gestão dos recursos hídricos em função de mudanças climáticas na bacia do rio Riachão, MG, Brasil

Abstract

The hydrological simulation of watersheds becomes a major tool for planning and management of water resources, including water availability prediction from global climate change. Thus, the objective was to evaluate the efficiency of the SWAT hydrologic model to simulate the stream flow of Riachão river basin, North of Minas Gerais State, Brazil, under the impact of alternative scenarios with the increase in mean surface air temperature. The SWAT model was adjusted for 1/1/2008 to 12/31/2014 period and calibrated with data measurement obtaining values the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.74 and 0.79 and percent bias (PBIAS) of 15.45 and 16.72% was found to calibration and validation period, respectively. The surface water availability in the hydrographic basin was calculated by Q90 streamflow, with calibrated value of 0.081 m³s-1. The scenarios of increase in mean air temperature (1.5, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and 5.0 ºC) reduced Q90 by 7.66, 8.98, 10.49, 14.06 and 17.76%, respectively.