Modelagem dos fluxos brutos de situação ocupacional no Brasil segundo a PNAD contínua de 2019 a 2022 com enfoque no mercado de trabalho informal

Abstract

This study aimed to carry out a statistical calculation of the transition flows between formal, informal, unemployed, discouraged and inactive workers regarding their transition in the quarters 2019/2 to 2019/4; 2020/2 to 2020/4; 2021/2 to 2021/4; and 2022/2 to 2022/4 of the Continuous PNAD. We aim to identify the effect of the pandemic specifically on the informal labor force. A statistical methodology was applied through raw flows, through the surf package of in the R software with the purpose of estimating flows considering non-response and complex sampling plans of the Continuous PNAD. Results indicate a smaller flow of Informal workers towards a Formal job in the years 2020 and 2021. In 2019, 13.94% of Informal workers migrated to the Formal category, but this percentage was only 5.92% in the year 2020, which represents the apex of the pandemic. Informal workers corresponded to around 20% in all cases, having presented smaller percentages in the year 2020. The Inactive represented more than 40% of the study population, which did not occur in any other year among those analyzed. The result of the analyzes showed the severity of the pandemic period, so that it generated a great economic stagnation, since there was a tendency to maintain the Formal, Inactive and Informal categories, that is, individuals with these conditions remain in this condition. The maintenance of formal employment was greater in the years 2020 and 2021, where the greatest effect of the COVID-19 pandemic occurred, apparently caused by a lower migration of these workers to informality.