Amazonian vegetation types and indigenous lands threatened by upcoming climate change: forecast impact for Brazilian biomes

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dc.creatorDaniel Meira Arruda
dc.creatorCarlos Ernesto Gonçalves Reynaud Schaefer
dc.creatorRubia Santos Fonseca
dc.creatorElpídio Inácio Fernandes Filho
dc.creatorGustavo Vieira Veloso
dc.creatorLucas de Carvalho Gomes
dc.creatorFábio Soares de Oliveira
dc.creatorGuilherme Resende Corrêa
dc.creatorMário Marcos do Espírito Santo
dc.creatorGuilherme de Castro Oliveira
dc.creatorRicardo Ribeiro de Castro Solar
dc.date.accessioned2024-10-08T21:28:44Z
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-08T23:18:08Z
dc.date.available2024-10-08T21:28:44Z
dc.date.issued2023-05-23
dc.description.sponsorshipCAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1111/aec.13369
dc.identifier.issn1442-9993
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1843/77319
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.relation.ispartofAustral Ecology
dc.rightsAcesso Restrito
dc.subjectBiomas
dc.subjectMudanças climáticas
dc.subjectEcossistemas em extinção
dc.subjectRecuperação ecológica
dc.subjectVegetação e clima
dc.subjectReservas indígenas
dc.subjectFlorestas tropicais - Conservação
dc.titleAmazonian vegetation types and indigenous lands threatened by upcoming climate change: forecast impact for Brazilian biomes
dc.typeArtigo de periódico
local.citation.issue1
local.citation.spagee13369
local.citation.volume49
local.description.resumoChanges in vegetation cover due to increasing frequencies of extreme climate events and anthropogenic pressure are already underway; so, predicting the impacts of the near-future climate will be essential for developing mitigation strategies. We modelled the responses of Brazilian biomes to a future scenario (2070) of steady increases in atmospheric CO2 levels, adding soil data to better represent the multidimensional space of the environmental suitability of each biome. We also assessed the effects of changes in environmental suitability on the Brazilian network of protected areas and projected those effects on 1 km resolution maps. The area predicted to be affected by future climate change in Brazil and the consequent loss of suitable habitat surface is 2.59 Mkm2 – larger than the combined areas of Central America and Mexico – leading the current vegetation to a progressive replacement. We project major changes in the vegetation of the Amazon basin, with the replacement of rainforest by dryer vegetation in the southern and eastern regions of that basin, and the opening of a dry corridor in Pará State. We also project an expansion of 41% of the current caatinga cover in the Brazilian semiarid region, with large losses of suitable habitat surface of the current deciduous forest. Approximately, 37% of the coverage of protected areas in Brazil will be affected – with greater damage to indigenous lands. The speed of current environmental change is now unprecedented for the post-glacial era, and will almost certainly lead to increased rates of extinction and the collapse of transition ecosystems. We propose the urgent creation of protected areas in regions designed without significant impacts, but contiguous to those that will be more seriously affected by climate change. Those areas will act as refugia preserving biodiversity, ecosystem services, and the cultural heritages of traditional populations.
local.publisher.countryBrasil
local.publisher.departmentICA - INSTITUTO DE CIÊNCIAS AGRÁRIAS
local.publisher.departmentIGC - DEPARTAMENTO DE GEOGRAFIA
local.publisher.initialsUFMG
local.url.externahttps://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/aec.13369

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