Trajetórias futuras do fogo florestal no bioma amazônico sob as mudanças do clima

Abstract

Interactions between extreme weather events and changes in land use can exacerbate carbon emissions (C) from tropical forest fires in the coming decades. However, most climate projections ignore this disturbance. Here, we use a coupled fire ecosystem model to show that regional drying and warming already committed on the southern Amazon biome can trigger more extensive and severe forest fires, emitting 2.9 PgC (billion tons) into the atmosphere by 2050. Reducing deforestation in our simulations suggests that fire-related emissions can be reduced by half, due to the decrease in burned area, mainly because of the spread of fire inside protected forests. Aggressive efforts to eliminate sources of ignition and suppress unwanted forest fires can further reduce emissions, particularly if global initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions succeed in preventing future occurrences of extensive and extensive droughts in the Amazon.