The spatial and temporal scales of local dengue virus transmission in natural settings: a retrospective analysis

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dc.creatorLuigi Sedda
dc.creatorAna Paula Pessoa Vilela
dc.creatorEric Roberto Guimarães Rocha Aguiar
dc.creatorCaio Henrique Pessoa Gaspar
dc.creatorAndré Nicolau Aquime Gonçalves
dc.creatorRoenick Proveti Olmo
dc.creatorAna Teresa Saraiva Silva
dc.creatorLízia de Cássia da Silveira
dc.creatorRoenick Proveti Olmo
dc.creatorAna Teresa Saraiva Silva
dc.creatorLízia de Cássia da Silveira
dc.creatorÁlvaro Eduardo Eiras
dc.creatorBetânia Paiva Drumond
dc.creatorErna Geessien Kroon
dc.creatorJoão Trindade Marques
dc.date.accessioned2025-02-10T19:52:43Z
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-09T00:12:06Z
dc.date.available2025-02-10T19:52:43Z
dc.date.issued2018-02-02
dc.format.mimetypepdf
dc.identifier.doiDOI 10.1186/s13071-018-2662-6
dc.identifier.issn1756-3305
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1843/79831
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.relation.ispartofParasites & Vectors
dc.rightsAcesso Aberto
dc.subjectAedes aegypti
dc.subjectVírus da Dengue
dc.subjectDengue
dc.subject.otherAedes aegypti
dc.subject.otherAedes albopictus
dc.subject.otherDengue virus serotypes 1 and 3
dc.subject.otherBivariate point-process
dc.subject.otherKriging
dc.subject.otherGeostatistical additive models
dc.subject.otherUrban dengue
dc.titleThe spatial and temporal scales of local dengue virus transmission in natural settings: a retrospective analysis
dc.typeArtigo de periódico
local.citation.epage14
local.citation.issue79
local.citation.spage1
local.citation.volume11
local.description.resumoBackground: Dengue is a vector-borne disease caused by the dengue virus (DENV). Despite the crucial role of Aedes mosquitoes in DENV transmission, pure vector indices poorly correlate with human infections. Therefore there is great need for a better understanding of the spatial and temporal scales of DENV transmission between mosquitoes and humans. Here, we have systematically monitored the circulation of DENV in individual Aedes spp. mosquitoes and human patients from Caratinga, a dengue endemic city in the state of Minas Gerais, in Southeast Brazil. From these data, we have developed a novel stochastic point process pattern algorithm to identify the spatial and temporal association between DENV infected mosquitoes and human patients. Methods: The algorithm comprises of: (i) parameterization of the variogram for the incidence of each DENV serotype in mosquitoes; (ii) identification of the spatial and temporal ranges and variances of DENV incidence in mosquitoes in the proximity of humans infected with dengue; and (iii) analysis of the association between a set of environmental variables and DENV incidence in mosquitoes in the proximity of humans infected with dengue using a spatio-temporal additive, geostatistical linear model. Results: DENV serotypes 1 and 3 were the most common virus serotypes detected in both mosquitoes and humans. Using the data on each virus serotype separately, our spatio-temporal analyses indicated that infected humans were located in areas with the highest DENV incidence in mosquitoes, when incidence is calculated within 2.5–3 km and 50 days (credible interval 30–70 days) before onset of symptoms in humans. These measurements are in agreement with expected distances covered by mosquitoes and humans and the time for virus incubation. Finally, DENV incidence in mosquitoes found in the vicinity of infected humans correlated well with the low wind speed, higher air temperature and northerly winds that were more likely to favor vector survival and dispersal in Caratinga. Conclusions: We have proposed a new way of modeling bivariate point pattern on the transmission of arthropodborne pathogens between vector and host when the location of infection in the latter is known. This strategy avoids some of the strong and unrealistic assumptions made by other point-process models. Regarding virus transmission in Caratinga, our model showed a strong and significant association between high DENV incidence in mosquitoes and the onset of symptoms in humans at specific spatial and temporal windows. Together, our results indicate that vector surveillance must be a priority for dengue control. Nevertheless, localized vector control at distances lower than 2.5 km around premises with infected vectors in densely populated areas are not likely to be effective.
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9271-6596
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9030-0688
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8143-5756
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5264-8368
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3849-8591
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3045-0673
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-4049-4055
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2721-3826
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-3457-3320
local.publisher.countryBrasil
local.publisher.departmentICB - DEPARTAMENTO DE BIOQUÍMICA E IMUNOLOGIA
local.publisher.departmentICB - DEPARTAMENTO DE MICROBIOLOGIA
local.publisher.departmentICB - DEPARTAMENTO DE PARASITOLOGIA
local.publisher.initialsUFMG
local.url.externahttps://parasitesandvectors.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13071-018-2662-6#rightslink

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