Política externa e desenvolvimento no Brasil (1985-2018) : os efeitos da ação externa do Estado brasileiro sobre comércio exterior

Abstract

How many times have you read or heard expressions with the following meaning: “the foreign policy contributes to national development through the promotion of exports”. This perspective is spread among the Brazilian political elite, public opinion, and the academic literature. However, a large portion of the studies in this field produce inferences based on research designs that are heavily dependent on qualitative sources, mostly public discourses and interviews with actors directly involved in this public policy, thus diminishing its explanatory potential. This dissertation aims at enhancing the comprehension regarding the relationship between foreign policy and national development, as well as its distributives effects, by verifying the causal nexus and evaluating the effects of this public policy on trade. To do so, this dissertation applies the gravity model to calculate the effects of the foreign policy implemented between 1985 and 2018, namely economic integration agreements, presidential travels, and the presence of embassies. This estimation is carried out on a database that encompasses 96.38% of the Brazilian trade in this interim. For this scientific endeavor, the gravity model is adequate because it controls economic, geographic, historical, and political variables, isolating the effects of the external action of the Brazilian state. The main results show that the Brazilian foreign policy has positive effects on exports and negative ones on imports, protecting of the national market. Nonetheless, the magnitude of these effects is insufficient to keep up with the growth of international competition in recent decades, notably from other developing countries, and from Latin America and the Caribbean.