Fatores que influenciam as decisões sob condições de incerteza no processo de valoração de empresas

Abstract

The article "The formation of expectations and their impact on subjective perception of the value of companies" (Dorow et al, 2009) reflected on the influence of human behavior in the evaluation of companies. The authors analyzed the conditions of uncertainty and subjective expectations that could have been transported to the projected cash flow and therefore affecting the perceived value of the companies. They concluded that the representativeness heuristic (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974) was incorporated to the expectations, affecting the projections made by individuals. Based on the studies conducted through this article, the present study aimed to validate their results and tried to identify what other bias could influence the professional when assessing a company. The aim of this study was to evaluate the expectations of an individual, these expectations generated according to their perceptions, in an environment of decision making under conditions of uncertainty, could influence the process of valuing companies. As a result, it became clear, both by proving the existence of the tendency to regain examples (representativeness bias) in the analyzed article, as the identification of the anchoring bias in the same context, it should takes a lot of attention and knowledge beyond traditional mathematical methods of assessment companies, such as discounted cash flow, for example, to evaluate a company.