A transição verde no Brasil: uma análise sob a ótica macrofinanceira crítica

Abstract

Extreme climate events, increasingly frequent and harmful to nature, society, and the economy, together with the need for countries to commit to mitigation and adaptation measures, have gained prominence in economic literature debates. However, it becomes essential to deepen the understanding of the structure of financial institutions within a macroeconomic framework, as it can either enable or hinder the transition to a green economy, especially in a country like Brazil, which is positioned outside the core of global capitalism. In this sense, this thesis uniquely outlined the current financial environment for the green transition in Brazil, based on the lens of the critical macrofinancial approach. This work was developed through the elaboration of three articles. Article 1 aimed to identify the green macrofinancial regime currently consolidating in Brazil over recent years. With this in mind, a qualitative study was conducted based on an integrated analysis of Brazil's monetary and fiscal policies, as well as the financial initiatives included in the Plano de Transformação Ecológica. The main finding was that, although the Brazilian green macrofinancial regime presents similarities with the profile of a "robust derisking State," the absence of a developed financial market and the maintenance of high interest rates in recent years render the adoption of post-neoliberal measures detrimental to Brazil’s green transition. Regarding the transformations observed in the global financial system, particularly the operations that convert credit into money, Article 2 analyzed the evolution of the balance sheets of Brazilian commercial banks, multiple banks, and savings banks from 2007 to 2023, with an emphasis on the role of shadow money in these institutions’ liabilities. To this end, four variables were examined: (i) the financial volume of each component of liabilities and assets; (ii) the maturity of repurchase agreements (repos), defined in the literature as shadow money in the Brazilian financial system; and (iii) the maturity profile of loan portfolios. The results showed that, although repos are not the largest component of bank liabilities, they represent an important source of funding for Brazilian banks. In terms of assets, there was an observed increase in the holdings of securities, although loans remain the primary asset for these institutions. The results indicate that the periods in which banks engaged in new business strategies — with a stronger short-term focus and based on financial market mechanisms — corresponded to the periods when Brazilian interest rates reached their highest levels. Complementarily, Article 3 reinforces the discussion on the role of the financial system in the green transition. This article revisits the concept of financial system functionality, as developed in the post-Keynesian tradition, considering the urgent need to transition to a low greenhouse gas emission economy. The methodology combined a literature review with the application of the financial system functionality indicator proposed by Rezende (2012). The results highlight the urgent need to expand financing for sustainable activities and reallocate resources away from polluting sectors. However, factors such as short-termism and the risk-return profile of green activities limit the financial system's effectiveness. In the Brazilian case, high exposure to climate-related risks and significant leverage increase the system’s vulnerability, showing that the current financial structure is inadequate to effectively support the transition to a low-carbon economy. Based on the foregoing, this thesis provided an overview of the structure of the Brazilian financial system for the green transition, through a critical macro-financial lens.