Pais adolescentes e jovens: o que a distribuição dos dados revela para uma regional de Belo Horizonte entre 2013 e 2018?

Abstract

Fatherhood has been increasingly debated and presented among social media as a perspective of paradigm change in fulfilling such role. However, paternity among teenagers and in the youth less discussed, studied and therefore little known. Objectives: To study the distribution of data that can reveal male fertility, therefore among men who were parents between the ages of 15 and 24, and to find models that follow the variability of the data, in order to make predictions. Data: The database for the work originated from the civil birth registrations found in a unit of the Registry Office of Belo Horizonte, located in a region of Belo Horizonte - MG, in the period from 2013 to 2018. Methodology: this work used time series forecast with the SARIMA and Holt-Winters models. Results: The results reveal that the distribution by the father's age group, is similar to the pattern of distribution observed among women, with the "belly" pointing to the occurrence of a higher number of cases among the younger ages. Considerations: There is a tendency to reduce the number of cases in all groups, especially those adolescent and young parents. The models were well succeeded and followed the variability of data, and the calculated predictions proved to be in line with the number of teenagers and young parents observed.