Current and future patterns of fire-induced forest degradation in Amazonia

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dc.creatorBruno L. de Faria
dc.creatorPaulo M. Brando
dc.creatorMarcia N. Macedo
dc.creatorPrajjwal K. Panday
dc.creatorBritaldo Silveira Soares Filho
dc.creatorMichael T. Coe
dc.date.accessioned2023-04-17T22:32:12Z
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-08T23:38:37Z
dc.date.available2023-04-17T22:32:12Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.description.sponsorshipCNPq - Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico
dc.description.sponsorshipFAPEMIG - Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais
dc.format.mimetypepdf
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa69ce
dc.identifier.issn1748-9326
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1843/52116
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.relation.ispartofEnviromental Research Letters
dc.rightsAcesso Aberto
dc.subjectAmazônia
dc.subjectMudanças climáticas
dc.subjectMudanças climáticas - Amazônia
dc.subjectSecas
dc.subjectQueimada
dc.subject.otherAmazon
dc.subject.otherClimate change
dc.subject.otherDrought
dc.subject.otherFire intensity
dc.subject.otherFire severity
dc.subject.otherCMIP5
dc.subject.otherFire modeling
dc.titleCurrent and future patterns of fire-induced forest degradation in Amazonia
dc.typeArtigo de periódico
local.citation.epage12
local.citation.issue9
local.citation.spage0
local.citation.volume12
local.description.resumoAmazon droughts directly increase forest flammability by reducing forest understory air and fuel moisture. Droughts also increase forest flammability indirectly by decreasing soil moisture, triggering leaf shedding, branch loss, and tree mortality—all of which contribute to increased fuel loads. These direct and indirect effects can cause widespread forest fires that reduce forest carbon stocks in the Amazon, with potentially important consequences for the global carbon cycle. These processes are expected to become more widespread, common, and intense as global climate changes, yet the mechanisms linking droughts, wildfires, and associated changes in carbon stocks remain poorly understood. Here, we expanded the capabilities of a dynamic forest carbon model to better represent (1) drought effects on carbon and fuel dynamics and (2) understory fire behavior and severity. We used the refined model to quantify changes in PanAmazon live carbon stocks as a function of the maximum climatological water deficit (MCWD) and fire intensity, under both historical and future climate conditions. We found that the 2005 and 2010 droughts increased potential fire intensity by 226 kW m1 and 494 kW m1 , respectively. These increases were due primarily to increased understory dryness (109 kW m1 in 2005; 124 kW m1 in 2010) and altered forest structure (117 kW m1 in 2005; 370 kW m1 in 2010) effects. Combined, these historic droughts drove total simulated reductions in live carbon stocks of 0.016 (2005) and 0.027 (2010) PgC across the Amazon Basin. Projected increases in future fire intensity increased simulated carbon losses by up to 90% per unit area burned, compared with modern climate. Increased air temperature was the primary driver of changes in simulated future fire intensity, while reduced precipitation was secondary, particularly in the eastern portion of the Basin. Our results show that fire-drought interactions strongly affect live carbon stocks and that future climate change, combined with the synergistic effects of drought on forest flammability, may strongly influence the stability of tropical forests in the future.
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8560-0034
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8952-7025
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1287-2004
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7703-946X
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7470-0697
local.publisher.countryBrasil
local.publisher.departmentIGC - DEPARTAMENTO DE CARTOGRAFIA
local.publisher.initialsUFMG
local.url.externahttps://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa69ce

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