Complexidade econômica, tecnológica e a dinâmica de desenvolvimento regional no Brasil

Abstract

In a context of deep regional inequalities, analyzing economic development based on the characteristics of the regions themselves—where resources are limited—becomes imperative to identify viable paths for inclusive and sustainable growth, grounded in local capabilities, productive diversification, and the articulation between technological knowledge and economic structure. After a brief review of the literature on economic development, economic complexity, and regional development, this dissertation investigates the relationship between productive complexity, technological complexity, and regional development in Brazil, using Brazilian mesoregions as the unit of analysis from 2003 to 2019. The main objective is to understand how economic structures, captured by the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and the Knowledge Complexity Index (KCI), built from employment and patent data, respectively, help explain patterns of regional economic growth. Descriptive analyses, survival models, and fixed-effects panel econometric models are employed, including interactions between the indexes to assess complementarity between the dimensions analyzed. Results suggest that productive and technological complexity do not automatically translate into sustained regional growth; however, interactions between the metrics consistently show positive effects, suggesting a strong complementarity between productive and technological capabilities. Positive spatial effects are also observed, especially associated with economic complexity, indicating possible regional spillovers. This dissertation contributes by expanding the understanding of the structural determinants of Brazilian regional development, highlighting the importance of policies that combine technological innovation, productive diversification, and local capacity-building.