Beyond random causes: harmonic analysis of business cycles at the Moscow conjuncture institute
| dc.creator | Marco P. Vianna Franco | |
| dc.creator | Leonardo Costa Ribeiro | |
| dc.creator | Eduardo da Motta e Albuquerque | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-10-31T20:53:24Z | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2025-09-09T00:21:10Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2023-10-31T20:53:24Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2022 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Este artigo propõe uma avaliação histórica da análise harmônica dos ciclos econômicos e sua capacidade de decompor e construir ciclos, conforme recebida no Instituto de Conjuntura de Moscou. Ele traça como a transformada de Fourier chegou ao Instituto, mediada por Henry L. Moore, nas obras e ações de Albert Vainshtein, Nikolai Chetverikov e Nikolai Kondratiev, levando finalmente ao conhecido artigo de Eugen Slutsky de 1927 “A soma de causas aleatórias como fonte de processos cíclicos.” Embora as evidências não justifiquem a suposição de que houve um esforço orquestrado no Instituto para impulsionar uma agenda de investigação sobre a análise harmónica dos ciclos económicos, este certamente se revelou mais do que a soma de acontecimentos aleatórios e incursões individuais. Além disso, o Instituto como um todo poderia ter produzido muito mais sobre esta questão se tivesse escapado à opressão estalinista durante pelo menos mais alguns anos. | |
| dc.identifier.doi | https://doi.org/10.1017/S1053837221000092 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1053-8372 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://hdl.handle.net/1843/60382 | |
| dc.language | eng | |
| dc.publisher | Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais | |
| dc.relation.ispartof | Journal of the History of Economic Thought | |
| dc.rights | Acesso Restrito | |
| dc.subject | Economia | |
| dc.subject | Analise de ciclos | |
| dc.subject.other | Business cycles assessment | |
| dc.subject.other | Moscow Conjuncture Institute | |
| dc.title | Beyond random causes: harmonic analysis of business cycles at the Moscow conjuncture institute | |
| dc.type | Artigo de periódico | |
| local.citation.epage | 476 | |
| local.citation.issue | 3 | |
| local.citation.spage | 456 | |
| local.citation.volume | 44 | |
| local.description.resumo | This article proposes a historical assessment of harmonic analysis of business cycles and its ability to both decompose and build cycles, as received at the Moscow Conjuncture Institute. It traces how the Fourier transform arrived at the Institute, mediated by Henry L. Moore, in the works and actions of Albert Vainshtein, Nikolai Chetverikov, and Nikolai Kondratiev, ultimately leading to Eugen Slutsky’s well-known 1927 article “The Summation of Random Causes as the Source of Cyclic Processes.” Although the evidence does not warrant the assumption that there was an orchestrated effort at the Institute to push forward a research agenda on harmonic analysis of business cycles, it certainly unfolded as more than the summation of random events and individual incursions. Moreover, the Institute as a whole could have produced much more on this matter if it had escaped Stalinist oppression for at least a few more years. | |
| local.publisher.country | Brasil | |
| local.publisher.department | FCE - DEPARTAMENTO DE CIÊNCIAS ECONÔMICAS | |
| local.publisher.initials | UFMG | |
| local.url.externa | https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-the-history-of-economic-thought/article/abs/beyond-random-causes-harmonic-analysis-of-business-cycles-at-the-moscow-conjuncture-institute/710708C6644552B34E992EF1871B91AD |
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