Indústrias relacionadas, complexidade econômica e diversificação regional: uma aplicação para microrregiões brasileiras

Abstract

This work contributes to the conceptual and empirical literature on regional diversification as a process of related industrial diversification. It does so in three ways. First, by connecting the literature on agglomeration economies with that of regional diversification and with that of economic complexity. Secondly, by developing a new measure of coherence between economic activities. Finally, by using micro data from Brazil, it provides empirical evidence for the process of diversification on a regional scale, rather than on national level. The empirical work shows that productive specialization of regions is a strongly path dependent process, and new economic activity is conditioned by the already existing productive structure. Thus, regions diversify, branching into sectors related to their current specialization. The analyzes suggest that it is difficult to attract new industries to a region if they are technologically distant from existing local activities. Moreover, even if they do enter a region, there are high probabilities of then exiting the area, if they are technologically distant from local activities. This difficulty becomes even greater in the case of complex industries. We picture this as a diversification dilemma brought about by a low complexity trap. Finally, we present empirical evidence that complex economic activities are concentrated in large regions. The analyzes suggest that larger regions, with a larger and more diverse set of skills, are more likely to develop new complex industries.