Redução na riqueza de mamíferos em Minas Gerais: projeções das mudanças climáticas

Abstract

Protected areas are fundamental for biodiversity conservation. However usually they are not defined based on biological criteria, nor considering dynamic threats such as climate change, which may result in inadequate biodiversity protection. It is important to analyze how well these areas capture species within their boundaries now and in the future to predict which species may be most vulnerable to extinction and to adopt conservation strategies to prevent these extinctions. We addressed these questions in the state of Minas Gerais by modeling the potential distribution of 46 endangered mammal species and projecting their distributions in future climate changing scenarios. Our results indicate that all species are represented in some protected area in the current scenario, but poorly protected, approximately 85% of species have only up to 15% protection in relation to the area of climatic suitability of the species in the state. Future projections are alarming and it indicates that 80% of species will lose all climatic conditions suitable for survival in the state, leaving only 9 that will remain poorly protected by protected areas, with protection below 30%. Of these 9 species, 3 will lose distributional area, 2 will keep almost the same area and 4 will increase distribution area, only considering they will be able to disperse. These results indicate that the creation of new protected areas, using Systematic Conservation Planning, it is important to increase protection for these species, but it is not enough. Government actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are extremely necessary. Only in this way is it possible to reverse this tragic future scenario that would severely harm ecosystems.