Planejamento e tomada de decisão no longo prazo na construção de portfólios de energia

Abstract

This work presents a methodology for long-term planning and decision-making in dynamic environments. The aim is to overcome the limitations of traditional approaches that overly depend on historical data and past trends, which prove insufficient for planning the future in complex scenarios. The proposed methodology assesses the needs of the people involved in the decision, and integrates the disciplines of scenario planning and multi-criteria decision-making, using a combination of quantitative and qualitative information. The results of the work are demonstrated through two case studies applied to companies for the construction of long-term energy portfolios. In these studies, the methodology allowed for the effective evaluation of investment alternatives, considering diverse objectives. The studies reflect the practical applicability of the methodology and its ability to capture the current needs of decision-makers. This work offers a robust and adaptable framework for long-term decisions in environments with dynamic uncertainties.