Choques globais e respostas do setor externo brasileiro: a curva J e as condições de Marshall-Lerner são observadas?

Abstract

The J-curve and Marshall-Lerner conditions consider impacts on the trade balance due to changes in terms of trade. Empirical exercises that evaluate both apply a shock in terms of trade to observe the dynamics of the trade balance. Nonetheless, terms of trade are an endogenous variable that fluctuates from economic shocks that also affect several global and domestic variables, all of which have the potential to affect the trade balance. The present work analyzes the possibility of occurrence of the J-curve and Marshall-Lerner conditions in the face of world demand and supply shocks that endogenously affect the terms of trade of the Brazilian economy, the trade balance, and other domestic variables. The analyzes made from the estimation of SVAR models by Bayesian procedures show that the positive demand shock and supply adverse shock value Brazilian terms of trade and cause deterioration of the trade balance from the moment of the shock, with the J-curve not being verified. Marshall-Lerner conditions are observed continuously. The simulations also show heterogeneity in the responses of trade balances disaggregated by type of good.