Interface entre o desempenho das universidades federais e o alcance das políticas públicas para o ensino superior: efetividade dos indicadores

Abstract

This study proposes to investigate the relationship between the TCU indicators and higher education funding policies, the public planning policy established in the second PNE and its impact on the performance of federal institutions of higher education (IFES) in Brazil. With the aim of pointing out the role of indicators in demonstrating the reach of public policies, with reference to the PNE targets for higher education, data from 63 federal universities were used as a sample. Data were collected from the IFES Management Reports, financial information from the STN, as well as open data from the Census of Higher Education released by INEP referring to graduation and data from the GEOCAPES system for post-graduation. The analyzed period was defined based on the duration of the second PNE for the decade from 2014 to 2024. Preliminarily, the role of indicators in the implementation and evaluation of public policies was debated. To specifically compare the relationship between the TCU indicators and the PNE indicators, a content analysis was carried out. Thus, it was found that the TCU indicators are not adequate to demonstrate the contribution of federal universities in achieving the PNE targets, since the proposed measurement of the TCU indicators when compared to the PNE targets and strategies present different indicators. Subsequently, in order to analyze the relationship between TCU indicators and budgetary change policies, instituted through resource cuts imposed by Constitutional Amendment 95/2016, the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) regression method was applied. The results of the regression analysis revealed a positive and significant relationship for three variables (CCSEMHU, FEFPESEMHU, GPE) represented by the indicators, and demonstrated that as discretionary committed expenses increased, these indicators also increased. But at the same time for the other four variables (GEPG, CAPES, IQCD and TSG) the regression analysis pointed to a negative and significant relationship, demonstrating that even when there was a reduction in discretionary committed expenses, the referred indicators showed evolution or were maintained. Such results reveal that the public choices made by managers of federal universities prioritize essential activities, as partially the performance indicators achieved by institutions have been maintained. Then, the scores were raised to demonstrate the social efficiency of federal universities, in relation to the contribution to the achievement of goals 12, 13 and 14 of the PNE. For goal 12, in the period studied from 2014 to 2021, the “efficient facet” defined by the DEA, the percentage of 65.07% of the DMUs in the sample, was reached. This result corroborates the reports released by INEP, pointing out that the objectives of target 12 are far from reaching 100%. For target 13, the data show that the target has been reached since 2014, so that the “efficient facet” projected by the DEA was higher than the target defined in the PNE. Given this condition, the universities that achieved efficiency for goal 13, with 28.57% of the DMUs in the sample, represent universities that have qualified faculty, very close to 100% of doctors. And for goal 14, the percentage was 36.50% of the DMUs considered efficient. The others that did not reach the “efficient facet” for goal 14, achieved efficiency scores on the 99% scale, pointing to the proximity of becoming efficient through the DEA scale. Finally, a new indicator was proposed to compose the list of enforceability of TCU indicators, with the intention of pointing out the achievement of PNE targets specifically for public education networks.