Comparação de cenários de geração nuclear utilizando o MESSAGE no horizonte de 2050

Abstract

Integrated energy planning is a very important tool in medium and long-term studies, projections and reviews of the energy mix of a country or region. Expectations of a significant increase in energy consumption, especially electrical energy, growing concerns about energy security and environmental pressures, especially with regard to greenhouse gas emissions, have replaced the nuclear option in discussions about energy. Thus, within a context of growth in electricity demand and the projections and expansion scenarios of the nuclear power generation system projected by the Empresa de Pesquisa Energética in the National Energy Plan 2030 and 2050, this work aims to compare two scenarios of generation from nuclear sources in the horizon of 2050 using MESSAGE. The reference scenario considers the Angra 1, 2 and 3 plants and the high scenario, that is, of greater nuclear growth, includes the installation of 8 more plants in the national integrated system. The study shows the participation of each scenario in the internal supply of electricity until 2050, compares the consumption of natural uranium for both scenarios as well as the spent nuclear fuel stored. The work also presents results related to annual expenses with the fuel cycle and operation and maintenance of the facilities in both scenarios.