Associações entre a zona de convergência do atlântico sul e o el niño e sua influência sobre a distribuição espaço temporal da leptospirose em Minas Gerais

Abstract

The paper discusses the associations between the South Atlantic Convergence Zone and El Niño -Southern Oscillation -and its influence on the increase of cases of leptospirosis inMinas Gerais (1998-2012). We calculated: the monthly frequency of these phenomena in Dec-Jan-Feb; The Pearson correlation coefficient between the time series of monthly Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the Niño 3-4 and Tropical South Atlantic regions;And precipitation anomalies in the state of Minas Gerais. The results of the frequency analysis revealed: i) a total of 77 episodes, with the highest frequencies occurring in 10 and Jan (30 episodes / month) and 17 episodes in February; Ii) events with high frequency presented 7 episodes in the summers of 2006/2007, 2007/2008, 2010/2011 and 2011/2012; Iii) the average frequency ranged from 5-6 episodes: 2002/2003 (5), 2003/2004 (5), 2005/2006 (6), 2008/2009 (6), 2009/2010 (5). The analysis of the time series of Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the Tropical Pacific region and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone showed a significant correlation with lag of 1 to 2 months between the series and, in relation to the Atlantic, was observed Negative correlation, i.e., anomalously cold waters associated with increased precipitation.