Sustentabilidade agroambeintal na recente fronteira agrícola brasileira do Matopiba: análise espacial e indicadores

Abstract

Matopiba, considered the newest Brazilian agricultural frontier, has been consolidating as a space for agribusiness expansion, but also as a region marked by intense processes of socioenvironmental transformation. In 2023, the Agricultural and Agroindustrial Development Plan of Matopiba (PDA-Matopiba) established agricultural development based on agroenvironmental sustainability and territorial management as one of its objectives. However, one question that arises in achieving this PDA-Matopiba: objective is how to quantify the agro-environmental sustainability of this region, since assessing agro-environmental sustainability requires considering different environmental, economic, and social criteria. Given this context, the main objective of this work was to evaluate agro-environmental sustainability in Matopiba using a spatial multi-criteria approach based on fuzzy logic. Initially, a systematic bibliometric analysis was conducted, which revealed a gap in studies on agro-environmental sustainability in Matopiba, while also highlighting the growing importance of multi-criteria analysis in the field of sustainability. Subsequently, specific concerns in the region were analyzed, such as the farmland abandonment, which reached approximately 4 million hectares between 2006 and 2021, particularly in areas in Tocantins and Maranhão, and the environmental vulnerability of protected areas in the western part of Bahia, assessed using the spatial Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP), which indicated more significant fragility in areas close to watercourses. Based on these analyses, the central result of the thesis was developed: a methodology for assessing agro-environmental sustainability in Matopiba using fuzzy spatial multi-criteria analysis. Using the proposed methodology, three scenarios were evaluated: maximum optimism, maximum pessimism, and a neutral scenario. The scenarios underwent a spatial autocorrelation analysis, which identified groups of microregions with low and high agro-environmental sustainability. The results showed that, although most of the region presented potential for sustainability, specific areas of Matopiba concentrated low-sustainability areas, especially in Tocantins, which might be associated with the expansion of livestock farming, deforestation, and soil degradation. The proposed approach proved effective in assessing agro-environmental sustainability in Matopiba, integrating the different dimensions of sustainability and dealing with methodological uncertainties common in multicriteria analysis. The results obtained can provide support for sustainable territorial management, planning of agricultural activities, and the formulation of public policies.