Modelagem geográfica para a simulação de custos de transporte de soja em bacias logísticas

Abstract

Transport systems, including those involving intermodal flows, have been increasingly studied in light of the challenge of training the logistics system and structuring investments. Seeking to improve planning, the executive report of the 2025 National Logistics Plan, released in 2018, provides for investments in highways, railways, cabotage and waterways, seeking to reduce the logistical cost of cargo transportation in the country. Soybean, a commodity that accounts for 14% of national exports, has as one of its main counterpoints the cost associated with its transport, with the freight cost corresponding to 80% of the total transport cost. In assessing the impacts of logistics infrastructure considering the year 2020 and the infrastructure proposed in the National Logistics Plan in 2025, this study investigated the soybean export routes between the largest Brazilian municipalities that produce the grain and the main ports of destination with the application of geotechnologies and simulation of predictive scenarios. The survey was fed by official public data, both for the current scenario and for the forecast for 2025. The results demonstrate the reduction in the cost linked to transporting the product to export routes that will benefit from the proposed implementations in the transport network for 2025. The research contributes to greater visibility in the strategic planning of future investments related to logistics infrastructure in Brazil, enabling structured and targeted actions for modes of transport. The model developed in open source software can be replicated as the infrastructure of railways, highways, waterways changes over time, in addition to freight rates, among other variables.