Modelagem ambiental aplicada à simulação de desmatamento na bacia hidrográfica do Igarapé Jarauá, Alvarães, Amazonas

Abstract

This survey aimed to elaborate models of simulation for deforestation for the Igarapé Jarauá river basin, located in the municipality of Alvarães, in the State of Amazonas. To identify the areas of deforestation, we used data from the MapBiomas platform. Simulation models were prepared with deforestation estimates for the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s and 2050s, using the Dinâmica EGO platform following the steps: 1-model calibration; 2-initial simulation and model adjustments; 3 validation and 4-final simulation.The simulation model presented for a 5x5 window, a Fuzzy minimum similarity of 0.75 corresponds to 75%, and a maximum Fuzzy similarity of 0.86 corresponds to 86%, thus presenting acceptable validation values. There was a transition of the areas of Dense Ombrophylous Forest for uses with agricultural activities, in the year 2010 the areas of deforestation corresponded to 1.22%, in 2020 with 4.48% of the basin area. From the deforestation simulation model, it was estimated 6.44% in the year 2030, 8.25% in the year 2040 and 9.93% in 2050 of the deforested area in the basin.