Avaliação do impacto da divulgação de fatos relevantes no caso Kroton e Estácio de Sá: um estudo de eventos

Abstract

The objective of the study was to identify the effects on the stock price of the Brazilian educational institutions Kroton and Estácio de Sá due to the disclosure of relevant facts about a potential business combination. CADE disapproved the operation on June,28/2017, more than a year after the disclosure of the first material fact that had occurred on June, 02/2016. Using the event study methodology, abnormal returns on the actions of the institutions were calculated and analyzed at the two aforementioned moments. Overall, the results showed a positive but punctual effect of approximately 33% at time t0 in the event window of Event I; this window generated a 32% accumulated abnormal returns for the Market Adjustment Model and 51% for the Risk and Market Adjusted Model. In Event II, the positive effect was 5%, which is not enough to maintain a positive result in the accumulation of returns within the window. The delay in CADE's final opinion is highlighted, which may have influenced and be an explanation of the behavior of asset prices.