Spatially explicit demographic projections for brazilian metropolitan areas by 2020 and 2030

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dc.creatorGlauco Umbelino
dc.creatorDiego Rodrigues Macedo
dc.creatorAlisson Barbieri
dc.creatorGilvan Ramalho Guedes
dc.creatorAlfredo Costa
dc.creatorUnited Nations
dc.creatorMinistério do Meio Ambiente
dc.date.accessioned2023-05-26T20:17:33Z
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-08T23:38:58Z
dc.date.available2023-05-26T20:17:33Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1843/54028
dc.languagepor
dc.publisherUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Population Conference
dc.rightsAcesso Aberto
dc.subjectGeografia
dc.subjectGeociências
dc.subject.otherUrban sprawl
dc.subject.otherGeotechnology
dc.subject.otherCellular automata
dc.subject.otherSimulation models
dc.subject.otherMetropolitan areas in Brazil
dc.titleSpatially explicit demographic projections for brazilian metropolitan areas by 2020 and 2030
dc.typeArtigo de evento
local.citation.epage5
local.citation.issueXXVIII International Population Conference
local.citation.spage1
local.description.resumoSimulation models coupled with Geographic Information Systems are now applied to several areas and have great potential for demographic studies. Demographic projections can tell us “how much we will be”, but when coupled with GIS tools these projections can add the ability to show “where we will be”. This paper simulates the growth of urban areas, the resident population, and their households for the Brazilian Metropolitan Regions of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Belo Horizonte, Brasilia, and Belém for 2020 and 2030. Based on demographic data measured between 2000 and 2010, and the mapping of urban areas through satellite images between 2000 and 2016, we used cellular automata models coupled with GIS to simulate future scenarios of population and urban growth. Our results suggest a decrease in the growth rate of urban areas despite the population and household growth in the coming decades. These trends are indicative of increasing intra-urban density, possibly reflected in the increase in building verticalization. Population is projected to grow at a slower pace than households, reflecting a decrease in the number of inhabitants per household in the study areas.
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1178-4969
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1178-4969
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1133-1089
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-8231-238X
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1735-6711
local.publisher.countryBrasil
local.publisher.departmentFCE - DEPARTAMENTO DE DEMOGRAFIA
local.publisher.departmentIGC - DEPARTAMENTO DE GEOGRAFIA
local.publisher.initialsUFMG
local.url.externahttps://zenodo.org/record/2576592

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