Preventable covid-19 cases and deaths by alternative vaccination and non-pharmacological intervention policies in brazil

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dc.creatorSamantha Rodrigues de Araújo
dc.creatorJoão Flávio de Freitas Almeida
dc.creatorLásara Fabrícia Rodrigues
dc.creatorElaine Leandro Machado
dc.date.accessioned2024-12-13T19:18:12Z
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-08T22:49:55Z
dc.date.available2024-12-13T19:18:12Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.format.mimetypepdf
dc.identifier.doi10.1590/1980-549720230054
dc.identifier.issn19805497
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1843/78676
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.relation.ispartofRevista Brasileira de Epidemiologia
dc.rightsAcesso Aberto
dc.subjectHealth Planning Guidelines
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectVaccines.
dc.subjectProgram Evaluation
dc.subjectEpidemiological Models
dc.subject.otherHealth Planning
dc.subject.otherCOVID-19
dc.subject.otherVaccines.
dc.subject.otherProgram Evaluation
dc.subject.otherEpidemiological Models
dc.titlePreventable covid-19 cases and deaths by alternative vaccination and non-pharmacological intervention policies in brazil
dc.title.alternativeCasos e mortes evitáveis de COVID-19 por políticas de vacinação alternativas e intervenções não farmacológicas no Brasil
dc.typeArtigo de periódico
local.citation.epage9
local.citation.issuee230054
local.citation.spage1
local.citation.volume26
local.description.resumoObjective: This work aimed to estimate the avoidable COVID-19 cases and deaths with the anticipation of vaccination, additional doses, and effective non-pharmacological interventions in Brazil. Methods: We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-susceptible model based on epidemiological indicators of morbidity and mortality derived from data obtained from the Health Information System of the Ministry of Health of Brazil. The number of cases and deaths was estimated for different scenarios of vaccination programs and non-pharmacological interventions in the states of Brazil (from March 8, 2020, to June 5, 2022). Results: The model-based estimate showed that 40 days of vaccination anticipation, additional vaccine doses, and a higher level the non-pharmacological interventions would reduce and delay the pandemic peak. The country would have 17,121,749 fewer COVID-19 cases and 391,647 avoidable deaths. Conclusion: The results suggest that if 80% of the Brazilian population had been vaccinated by May 2021, 59.83% of deaths would have been avoided in Brazil.
local.publisher.countryBrasil
local.publisher.departmentENG - DEPARTAMENTO DE ENGENHARIA PRODUÇÃO
local.publisher.departmentMED - DEPARTAMENTO DE MEDICINA PREVENTIVA SOCIAL
local.publisher.initialsUFMG
local.url.externahttps://doi.org/10.1590/1980-549720230054

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