Modelagem de transição florestal na Mata Atlântica

Abstract

Despite its recognized ecological importance and high anthropogenic pressure to which it is submitted, there are few efforts to model the Atlantic Forest dynamic. This paper contributes proposing a spatially explicit model for the biome, based on publicly available data. The model consists of two parts: i) the estimated rate of deforestation and regeneration based on an econometric model, and ii) the integration of the econometric model with spatial variables, applying changes in a spatially explicit manner. The econometric model was calibrated with data based on Agricultural Census (IBGE, 1998, 2006), yielding a regression of spatial dependence on the error term. The spatial model was calibrated with data from SOS Mata Atlântica / INPE (2000, 2008), for 1995 and 2005, and validated based on the statement of changes from 2005 to 2008. Finally, a simulation for 2030 assesses the behavior of the model on the long term. The results showed that the model is able to represent the contemporary dynamic of the Atlantic Forest, and therefore it can be used to observe the phenomenon of forest transition, to identify priority areas for conservation and recovery and to evaluate the impacts of changes in the national Forestry Code for the conservation of the biome.