Interconexões entre estrutura produtiva, fluxo de renda e consumo na economia brasileira: uma aplicação de uma matriz de contabilidade social e financeira (mcs-f) com abertura das famílias

Abstract

The aim of this study is to incorporate a Household disaggregation, according to 10 income classes, in a Financial Social Accounting Matrix (FSAM) for Brazil in 2005. We employed a Social Accounting model to analyze the multipliers and the Bolsa Família's impacts on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and income. The multipliers showed that productive expansions promote greater impact on capital income than on wages. Moreover, exogenous injections of income, for example, government transfers to households, have major effects on output when they go to poorest classes. Regarding to the “Bolsa Família” program, the results suggest this policy promotes economic growth greater than its cost on short run. In the long run, the effects depends on how the Government finances its spending. Two main conclusions can be made: i) the income concentration pattern tends to reproduce indefinitely in the absence of structural changes or redistributive policies in the Brazilian economy; ii) we observed a decrease trend on the Bolsa Família’s distributive effect on long run, since we found the multiplier effect on capital income is higher than on labor income