Land speculation and conservation policy leakage in Brazil

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dc.creatorJavier Miranda
dc.creatorJan Börner
dc.creatorMatthias Kalkuhl
dc.creatorBritaldo Silveira Soares Filho
dc.date.accessioned2023-04-19T20:56:06Z
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-09T00:34:05Z
dc.date.available2023-04-19T20:56:06Z
dc.date.issued2019-04-02
dc.format.mimetypepdf
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab003a
dc.identifier.issn1748-9326
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1843/52293
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.relation.ispartofEnviromental Research Letters
dc.rightsAcesso Aberto
dc.subjectEspeculação
dc.subjectDesigualdade social
dc.subjectDesmatamento
dc.subjectBiodiversidade - Conservação
dc.subject.otherLand prices
dc.subject.otherDeforestation
dc.subject.otherSpeculation
dc.subject.otherConservation policy
dc.subject.otherLeakage
dc.titleLand speculation and conservation policy leakage in Brazil
dc.typeArtigo de periódico
local.citation.epage11
local.citation.issue4
local.citation.spage045006
local.citation.volume14
local.description.resumoThe Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado biomes have been subject to strong pressure from agricultural expansion over the past two decades. A common claim is that the associated tree cover loss was partly driven by speculative land acquisition. In this paper, we analyze the effects of information on planned road infrastructure improvements and changes in conservation policy implementation on expectations of forest conversion. We use a unique land price dataset covering the period from 2001–2012. Based on land rent and hedonic valuation theory, we argue that forestland prices convey information on expected future land use. We decompose forestland prices into a conventional forestland rent and a speculative part related to forestland conversion and alternative land use rents. Using a fixed-effect panel, we then assess whether, where, and to what extent changes in conservation policy affect forestland prices over time. Our results confirm that forestland prices contain expectations about converting forestland to agricultural or pasture land. We also find indications that the Brazilian land market conveys information about potential conservation policy leakage and explore this conjecture descriptively using dynamic deforestation hotspot maps.
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9958-8454
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3034-5360
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-4797-6628
local.identifier.orcidhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-7703-946X
local.publisher.countryBrasil
local.publisher.departmentIGC - DEPARTAMENTO DE CARTOGRAFIA
local.publisher.initialsUFMG
local.url.externahttps://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab003a

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