Modelo e software de decisão multicritério com critérios hierárquicos e dados incertos aplicado à avaliação da sustentabilidade no ciclo de vida

Abstract

Most MCDA/M (Multi-criteria Decision Aid or Multiple Criteria Decision Making) methods do not consider the hierarchy of criteria present and the subjectivity of the direct elicitation of weights present in various decision-making problems. These points have been widely discussed in the literature, but not adequately addressed when it comes to the VIKOR method. Usually, models that address these challenges require mathematical and programming knowledge that is often incompatible with the user’s reality. In complex decisions such as the LCSA (Life Cycle Sustainable Assessment), these difficulties become even more evident, as the problem itself already presents chal lenges. Therefore, this thesis proposes a multi-criteria decision method and software based on the VIKOR method that enables indirect elicitation and hierarchy of criteria applied to the LCSA analysis. A variant of MCHP (Multiple Criteria Hierarchy Pro cess) is used to consider the hierarchy of criteria and SMAA (Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis) to elicit the weights. Furthermore, the acceptance conditions of VIKOR are adapted as new descriptive measures of the SMAA. The proposed mo del, called VIKOR-HSMAA, provides the basis for software VIKOR-HS applied in two case studies. The first analyzes data from the application of an LCSA, previously discussed in the literature, to evaluate four different animal production alternatives in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The crop-livestock rotation system forms the compromise solution for sustainability, economic and environmental assessments. The System with fertilized pastures and the System with protein supplementation form the social commitment solution. The second study evaluates the sustainability of Brazilian states. Santa Catarina (SC) was the most sustainable and economical state. Roraima and Distrito Federal (DF) form the environmental compromise solution, and SC and DFthe social solution. VIKOR-HS demonstrated ease in replicating different scenarios with variations in weights and offered information for a detailed analysis at all levels of the hierarchy, thus contributing to less subjective decision making.