Exploring the changing patterns of population (re)distribution in Brazil: a multiscale and multidimensional approach

Abstract

Since the stabilization of mortality and the beginning of a widespread fertility decline in the 1970s, internal migrations became the main mechanism of population (re)distribution in Brazil. In this regard, by the 1980s, an inflexion of tendencies was observed, supposedly a delayed reflex of changes in the national space economy in the previous decade. The complexity and magnitude of the processes involved generated a plethora of different - and often conflicting - interpretations and concepts. This thesis aims to provide a robust theoretical and empirical basis for the discussion of the processes of population concentration and dispersion in the country, by analyzing multiple dimensions of migration (intensity, impact, distance and connectivity) over the last three decades at a variety of spatial scales. First, a conceptual framework is presented to contextualize the changing patterns of population (re)distribution in broader spatial cycles regarding economic and urban dynamics. Then, the general patterns and changes in key dimensions of migration over the last three decades at national level are described. A multiscale approach was adopted, in order to face the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP) challenge regarding migration analysis in Brazil. After that, the changing patterns of migration between hierarchical levels of the Brazilian urban system are explored. Finally, Network Analysis methods are used to determine the changes in the topology of migration networks over the last three decades and unveil the spatial structure of migrations in Brazil since the 1980s.