Evaluating the presence of state dependent fiscal multiplier in Brazil

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dc.creatorBerto Carvalho da Silva Junior
dc.date.accessioned2022-06-15T16:51:12Z
dc.date.accessioned2025-09-08T23:33:12Z
dc.date.available2022-06-15T16:51:12Z
dc.date.issued2021-10-29
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/1843/42540
dc.languageeng
dc.publisherUniversidade Federal de Minas Gerais
dc.rightsAcesso Aberto
dc.subjectPolítica tributária
dc.subjectBrasil
dc.subjectFinanças públicas
dc.subjectEconomia
dc.subject.otherFiscal Policy
dc.subject.otherGovernment Spending
dc.subject.otherBusiness Cycles
dc.subject.otherPublic Finance
dc.titleEvaluating the presence of state dependent fiscal multiplier in Brazil
dc.typeDissertação de mestrado
local.contributor.advisor1Mauro Sayar Ferreira
local.contributor.advisor1Latteshttp://lattes.cnpq.br/1737002737522248
local.creator.Latteshttps://lattes.cnpq.br/1644745937665469
local.description.resumoThis study uses local projection technique to investigate the size of the fiscal multiplier in Brazil after allowing for the possibility of distinguished impacts depending on the state of the economic activity. The analyses rely on the time series of central government expenditure adjusted according to the methodology developed by Orair et al. (2016), which we extend until 2019, to incorporate expenses that have not been properly placed in the government account. The 1-year fiscal expenditure multiplier on the GDP is around 2 during states of slackness and -2 in regular states, suggesting a crowding out effect in the last case. The 1-year fiscal expenditure multiplier on household consumption and investment is significant and close to 0.8 in states of slackness being negative but not significant in regular states of economic activity. The 1-year multiplier on industry and service value added are close to 1 in slackness, and not significant during regular states.
local.publisher.countryBrasil
local.publisher.initialsUFMG
local.publisher.programPrograma de Pós-Graduação em Economia

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