Taxa de incremento orçamentário dos poderes do estado de Minas Gerais: uma análise em perspectiva temporal e por reamostragem de dados

Abstract

This work intends to analyze de relationships between the public institutions of the State of Minas Gerais, referring to the public budget of the state, as regards to the Budgetary Increment Rate, created and calculated as the annual public expenditure in percentage of the initial credit contemplated in the Budgetary Annual Act of Minas Gerais. Four time-series are analyzed with respect to the Public Institutions of Minas Gerais: the Legislative Institutions, Justice Institutions, the Government Institutions and the Prosecution Service. The time series are submitted to unit-root and cointegration tests, and the Vector Error Correction Model is estimated for the data. Besides, the Pearson correlation matrices are tested in comparison to new samples generated using the bootstrap method and Cholesky factorization. The new data generated by random simulation are submitted to multiple regression analysis, intending to provide an alternative analysis due to the small size of the original sample. The conclusion is that the relationships between the Legislative Institutions, Justice Institutions and the Prosecution Service concerning to the original data and the simulated data. The time series analysis pointed significant relationship between Justice Institutions and the Prosecution Service, despite the models lack of larger samples.